Analysis of the most affected countries in South America

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Ecuador

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,575$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(4.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,650.8}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(38,650.8\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,534$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(187 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,710.7}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 56.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,710.7\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,473$ on 2020-06-05

Brazil

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $614,941$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(7.69 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,324,754.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 82.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,324,754.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,021$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(892 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,664.9}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 65.5)}}\) (asimptote \(48,664.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $580,920$ on 2020-06-05

Peru

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $187,400$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(3.87 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{280,523.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 75.0)}}\) (asimptote \(280,523.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,162$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(160 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,756.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 63.4)}}\) (asimptote \(6,756.1\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $103,024$ on 2020-06-05

Chile

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $122,499$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{468,714.4}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 102.7)}}\) (asimptote \(468,714.4\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,448$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(21.2 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)

Active

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,693$ on 2020-06-05

Bolivia

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,728$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(81.8 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,714.9}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 90.7)}}\) (asimptote \(41,714.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $427$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(13.2 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,148.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 76.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,148.8\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,562$ on 2020-06-05

Colombia

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $36,759$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(778 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{110,229.2}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 96.2)}}\) (asimptote \(110,229.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,204$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(65.7 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,148.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 71.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,148.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,885$ on 2020-06-05

Argentina

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $21,037$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(487 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)

Dead

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $632$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(56.2 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{825.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 57.3)}}\) (asimptote \(825.7\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,317$ on 2020-06-05

Uruguay

Population $3,473,730$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $834$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(252 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{797.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 26.9)}}\) (asimptote \(797.4\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(6.5 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 25.0)}}\) (asimptote \(22.8\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $90$ on 2020-06-05

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Uruguay recovered 72%