Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $41,575$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(4.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,650.8}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(38,650.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,534$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(187 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,710.7}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 56.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,710.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,473$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $614,941$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(7.69 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,324,754.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 82.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,324,754.5\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,021$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(892 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,664.9}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 65.5)}}\) (asimptote \(48,664.9\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $580,920$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $187,400$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.87 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{280,523.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 75.0)}}\) (asimptote \(280,523.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,162$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(160 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,756.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 63.4)}}\) (asimptote \(6,756.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $103,024$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $122,499$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{468,714.4}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 102.7)}}\) (asimptote \(468,714.4\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,448$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(21.2 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,693$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,728$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(81.8 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,714.9}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 90.7)}}\) (asimptote \(41,714.9\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $427$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(13.2 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,148.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 76.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,148.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,562$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $36,759$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(778 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{110,229.2}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 96.2)}}\) (asimptote \(110,229.2\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,204$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(65.7 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,148.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 71.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,148.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,885$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $21,037$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(487 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $632$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(56.2 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{825.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 57.3)}}\) (asimptote \(825.7\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,317$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $834$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(252 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{797.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 26.9)}}\) (asimptote \(797.4\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $23$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(6.5 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 25.0)}}\) (asimptote \(22.8\))
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $90$ on 2020-06-05
